Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Rock, Paper, Scissors

"...It's supposed to be a game of pure luck, not skill
— and indeed, if humans were able to be perfectly random,
no one could gain an upper hand over anyone else.

There's one problem with that reasoning: Humans are terrible at being random.

...there are two paths to victory in RPS: Eliminating one of your opponent's options
— for example, influencing her not to play Paper
— and forcing her to make a predictable move.

In both cases ..."the key is that it has to be done
without them realizing that you are manipulating them."

...Expert players have observed that inexperienced ones tend to lead with Rock.

...remember the mantra "Rock is for rookies,"
and simply throw Paper at the outset of a game to earn an easy first victory.

"Rock is for rookies" should be kept in mind against more experienced players, too.

They won't lead with Rock — it's too obvious — so use Scissors against them.

This throw will either beat Paper or tie with itself.

If your opponent makes the same move twice in a row, t
hey almost certainly won't make that move a third time.

...With that option eliminated,
you're guaranteed either a victory or a stalemate in the next round.

If you see a "two-Scissor run," for example,
your opponent's next move will be either Rock or Paper.

If you throw Paper, then, you'll either beat Rock or play to a draw.

...you can use the power of suggestion to influence your opponent's next move.

When discussing a game, for example, gesture over and over again
with the move that you want your opponent to play next.

...when people are not paying attention
their subconscious mind will often accept your 'suggestion,'"

...players often imitate their opponents' last moves.

Announcing your next move before a round starts
also seems to be an effective mind trick, though it'll only work once.

If you say you're going with Paper, for example,
your opponent thinks you won't...

...they'll shy away from Scissors (which beats Paper),
and choose Rock or Paper instead.

When you do end up throwing Paper, you'll score a victory or a tie.

...your opponent will often try to come back from a loss or tie
by throwing the move that would have beaten his last one.

If he lost using Rock, for example,
he'll likely follow up by throwing Paper.

Knowing this, you can decide what move to follow with yourself.

...monkeys show the same behavioral pattern.

...monkeys, like humans, are capable of analyzing past results
and imagining a different outcome...

Humans can take the logic one step further,
by imagining what their opponents might be imagining.

There's one more ploy

..."When you suggest a game with someone,
make no mention of the number of rounds you are going to play.

Play the first match and if you win, take it is as a win.

If you lose, without missing a beat start playing the 'next' round
on the assumption that it was a best two out of three.

No doubt you will hear protests from your opponent but stay firm and remind them
that 'no one plays best of one,'"..."



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